Posts Tagged ‘International Affairs’

RAND, the American think-tank, has released a systematic study of historical fights against terrorist organizations ranging from the Oklahoma City bombers to Sri Lankan Tamil Tigers to Al-Qaeda in Iraq. The examination concludes that a “war on terror” is a mistaken approach to beat a distributed, insurgent enemy. Instead, in most scenarios a policy of smart policing and intelligence gathering is the best to defeat terrorism.

According to the analysis, overwhelming military might is only effective “Where opponents are large, organised like armies and occupy territory, military methods are likely to be more effective.” Such cases as Colombia’s FARC deserve traditional battle techniques, but only 20% of insurgencies are beaten through military assaults.

Forty-three percent, the largest quantity, of terrorist entities which ended their violence did so due to acceptance into the political process. Forty percent were beaten through traditional police and intelligence work.

This supports the analysis done in “The Starfish and the Spider” which recognizes that distributed networks cannot be beaten through centralized attacks. Current American counter-terror policies, however, try to do just that. The report’s authors suggest that the United States treat the terrorists as criminals, not warriors. “”The United States has the necessary instruments to defeat al Qaida, it just needs to shift its strategy and keep in mind that terrorist groups are not eradicated overnight.”

Fareed Zakaria, one of the leading public intellectuals, has published a new book entitled “The Post-American World.” In it, Zakaria synthesizes the major trends influencing America and makes a compelling case for what America and the world’s future could and should hold.

Part descriptive, part prescriptive, this book examines the “rise of the rest,” Zakaria’s term for the increased political and economic power of countries previously caught in poverty. The ascendancy of India and China is specifically examined. Zakaria is clear-headed and cogent as he describes the relative rise of the two nations. It is not his belief that America is falling, only that others are rising. In fact, after noting the similarities between the British Empire and America’s 20th century hegemony, it is hard to disagree with his prediction of a leveling of the international field.

In coming to terms with the reality of a world without a unipole, the author succinctly prescribes the role of America as he sees it. Even though the legitimacy of the USA has been severely harmed in recent years through blunder and error, Zakaria thinks that the historical legacy and continuing importance of American power will allow it to reposition itself into a global Bismarkian force. Economic prowess and diplomatic adeptness, Zakaria contends, will allow America to maintain special allegiance with more countries than most.

My only qualms with the book stem from the same qualities which make it an important one: it is brief and approachable. Though this increases the liklihood that Zakaria’s thoughtful work will reach more readers, it limits the attention he can give to countries rising besides India and China. I would have liked to see a discussion of Russia, Brazil, South Africa and other but will have to look elsewhere. Perhaps Parag Khanna’s The Second World will help here.

Overall, this is a book I tore through (and from my brother’s hands). As McCain and Obama shape their domestic and foreign policy, this is a book which should factor in heavily. Although many of the themes – competition, nuclear proliferation, cultural differences – will be familiar to readers, Zakaria molds them into a comprehensive narrative worthy of your time.

[Image: New Yorker]