Posts Tagged ‘FARC’

RAND, the American think-tank, has released a systematic study of historical fights against terrorist organizations ranging from the Oklahoma City bombers to Sri Lankan Tamil Tigers to Al-Qaeda in Iraq. The examination concludes that a “war on terror” is a mistaken approach to beat a distributed, insurgent enemy. Instead, in most scenarios a policy of smart policing and intelligence gathering is the best to defeat terrorism.

According to the analysis, overwhelming military might is only effective “Where opponents are large, organised like armies and occupy territory, military methods are likely to be more effective.” Such cases as Colombia’s FARC deserve traditional battle techniques, but only 20% of insurgencies are beaten through military assaults.

Forty-three percent, the largest quantity, of terrorist entities which ended their violence did so due to acceptance into the political process. Forty percent were beaten through traditional police and intelligence work.

This supports the analysis done in “The Starfish and the Spider” which recognizes that distributed networks cannot be beaten through centralized attacks. Current American counter-terror policies, however, try to do just that. The report’s authors suggest that the United States treat the terrorists as criminals, not warriors. “”The United States has the necessary instruments to defeat al Qaida, it just needs to shift its strategy and keep in mind that terrorist groups are not eradicated overnight.”

Two of my favorite stories from the underbelly of international affairs are those of Viktor Bout and the 2005 coup attempt in Equatorial Guinea. In recent months, they have both seen important updates to their continuing saga.

Viktor Bout is a Russian arms dealer who has risen to pseudo-prominence through his shady deals with nefarious organizations the world over. His international dealings have placed him in close contact with groups like FARC and the Taliban and, in turn, on the wanted lists of many nations. Even though international law enforcement have been seeking him for years, he has reportedly enjoyed the protection of the Russian state and lived openly in Moscow. However, he was recently arrested in Thailand following the capture of an internal FARC computer which tied him to their guerrilla warfare.

Similarly to Bout, much of what is known about the coup in Equatorial Guinea is based upon fleeting (mis)information. I learned about the event in Adam Roberts’s compelling account, The Wonga Coup. Equatorial Guinea is a tiny, bifurcated former Spanish colony in west Africa whose oil-rich stature has brought it foreign investments. The ruthless President Obiang has been in power since the late 1970s when a bloody coup toppled his uncle. It seems fitting, then, that in 2005 a group of outsiders tried to take control of Equitorial Guinea to exploit their oil reserves. Famed British mercenary Simon Mann and the son of Margaret Thatcher, Mark, were involved in the planning and financing of the operation. The only problem? On the night of the planned coup, 65 of the mercenaries were arrested purchasing arms in Zimbabwe. Since then, they have been held in African jails awaiting trials which, for Mann, started yesterday. The prosecution is seeking 30 years for his alleged role in the debacle.

Together, these two real-life tales provide plenty of intrigue. Many words have been spilled trying to uncover the illegal dealings of these men, but in the coming months, as trials take place, we will surely learn more.

[Images courtesy of Men's Vogue and Google Maps]