Michael Lewis and David Einhorn have a terrific couple of articles in the New York Times today. They cogently trace the structural causes of our current financial crisis and recommend a number of obvious fixes.
The critique which most resonated with me was the focus on short-term profits that leads to risky behavior and long-term failure. For example, starting three years ago, a private investor named Harry Markopolos repeatedly tried to sound the alarm about the Madoff Ponzi scheme, writing and speaking with S.E.C. regulators who did nothing to stop the enormous fraud. The reason no one stopped Madoff and the reason we are in this crisis is because all involved have misaligned interests.
OUR financial catastrophe, like Bernard Madoff’s pyramid scheme, required all sorts of important, plugged-in people to sacrifice our collective long-term interests for short-term gain. The pressure to do this in today’s financial markets is immense. Obviously the greater the market pressure to excel in the short term, the greater the need for pressure from outside the market to consider the longer term. But that’s the problem: there is no longer any serious pressure from outside the market. The tyranny of the short term has extended itself with frightening ease into the entities that were meant to, one way or another, discipline Wall Street, and force it to consider its enlightened self-interest.
The tyranny of the short-term manifests in credit rating agencies who make money off the firms they are supposed to rate honestly. It shows up in the S.E.C. where regulators seek good relationships with financial institutions in order to receive higher paying jobs in the private sector. It’s on display with bank executives who will be forced out if they don’t make short-term profits.
This is something about which I’ve worried for a while: how do we imbue our market-driven firms with long-term thinking? Quarterly earnings reports, expected to be better than 3 months before, seem like a good idea for shareholder accountability, but it also forces firms to make short-term decisions that may harm their long-term interests.
Lewis and Einhorn are dumbstruck that 18 months into this situation, next to nothing has been done to solve these structural problems. Although they have their disagreements with how Treasury Secretary Paulson is managing the problems (they advocate letting the banks fail), the more important, long-term problems haven’t been addressed.
Their solutions are:
- Stop making regulatory decisions with long-term consequences in fear of their short-term effects
- End the official status of the rating agencies – either privatize the rating or do it publicly
- Regulate financial innovations like credit default swaps (see Bookstaber’s book for their danger)
- Place capital requirements on banks or break up banks into parts that are small enough to fail
- Don’t allow S.E.C. officials to work on Wall Street, but encourage the flow in the opposite direction
I’m glad sensible, structural proposals are being put forth and hope Obama and the incoming Congress heed them.
The most important thing we can do to encourage long-term thinking is to not shield Wall Street firms from the long-term results of their short-sighted decisions. This is what's so damaging about the bailout. From now on, banks will have no incentive whatsoever to avoid high-risk investments.
Tim, do you really think that banks would learn from their mistakes, with or without the bailout?
I think the only way to _ensure_ that companies are thinking long-term is to have the government step in and make it unattractive or impossible for short-term thinking to trump long-term thinking. That will remove the prisoner's dilemma-like problem for financial institutions trying to make good decisions while facing competition that makes dumber, but more immediately profitable, decisions.
I think both of you are right – firms need to be held accountable, but some form of regulation may be needed because leadership changes and with it goes the memory of the cost of failure. What remains is the motivation for short-term profits. Memories are shorter lived than laws.
Speaking of Barack Obama: LONG LIVE EMPEROR OBAMA!
Obama is a racial-minority individual and does not like racism:
I know it may be hard to believe, but there is absolutely no doubt about it: Ronald Wilson Reagan committed horrible, racist, hate crimes during his presidency.
A lot of people know about the infamy surrounding Ronald Wilson Reagan's former existence.
And a lot of people will know about Reagan's infamy–even until the end of human existence: they'll find out.
Numbers 32:23: “Be sure your sin will find you out.”
Respectfully Submitted by Andrew Yu-Jen Wang, J.D. Candidate
B.S., With the Highest Level of Academic Honors at Graduation, 1996
Messiah College, Grantham, PA
Lower Merion High School, Ardmore, PA, 1993
(I can type 90 words per minute, and there are thousands of copies on the Internet indicating the content of this post. And there are at least hundreds of copies in very many countries around the world.)
_________________
“If only it were possible to ban invention that bottled up memories so they never faded and they never got stale.” Off the top of my head—it came from my Lower Merion High School yearbook.
Just stumbled upon your site and thought that this nicely summed up my opinion about our society. Capitalism is fundamentally entwined with short term thinking, the role of government should be to balance this out with long term consequences. When both government and capitalism align with short term interests, we find ourselves in very real trouble. The real question is: How do you get the man on the street to start thinking long term again?
Just stumbled upon your site and thought that this nicely summed up my opinion about our society. Capitalism is fundamentally entwined with short term thinking, the role of government should be to balance this out with long term consequences. When both government and capitalism align with short term interests, we find ourselves in very real trouble. The real question is: How do you get the man on the street to start thinking long term again?